The Chiefs want to see progress in a way that just hasn't happened in Kansas City in 2009, and really, I'd think that a .500 season would send first-year coach Todd Haley spinning cartwheels down Arrowhead Drive. Anything but a continuation of the last two years, when six wins and a hundred questions made it a complicated and questionable decision to follow the Chiefs.

But why not shoot for the moon? No, it's not likely that the Chiefs will win the division this year. It is possible, though. Miami won the AFC East last year after going 1-15 in 2007. The Dolphins had a lot farther to climb than the Chiefs, and a new coach, GM and quarterback at least helped expedite their return to respectability. Atlanta didn't win the NFC South, but the Falcons made the playoffs. Yep, new coach, GM and quarterback. The Chiefs have made changes at all three of those critical spots.

Later, we'll check out the ways that the Chiefs could finish last in the AFC West. But, hey, we're feeling optimistic this morning. So we'll at least begin with this: Here are five things that have to happen for Kansas City to win the AFC West.

Denver and San Diego have to struggle. This is probably the most important thing for the Chiefs to have a contending season. As much as Kansas City can do on its own, it needs help from the two division mainstays the last few years. Denver is probably geared for a tough season after the offseason drama involving first-year coach Josh McDaniels and former quarterback Jay Cutler. But San Diego could contend for the Super Bowl. For the Chiefs to have any chance, the Chargers have to underachieve and win no more than nine games. Eight wins won the division last year, and although that number isn't likely to get it done again, a nine-win San Diego team would mean that the Chiefs likely won at least one of the match-ups against the Chargers.

Matt Cassel has to continue moving toward being a top-tier quarterback. The Chiefs' most impressive offseason addition looked good in offseason practice and the team's minicamp, but he'll face challenges this season that he didn't see the past few months and even last year with New England. Cassel won't have the luxury of a sturdy offensive line or top-flight receivers, as he possessed with the Patriots. So a lot of the Chiefs' fate on offense will rely on Cassel and Cassel alone. He'll need Larry Johnson to carry his share, hope the line holds up, and pray that his receivers can catch consistently. But it'll be on Cassel, in the highest-pressure season of his career, who will have to step up and flirt with making the Pro Bowl.

The 3-4 defense has to work. Coaches are taking a big risk by shifting from the 4-3 defensive front. Forcing players to change positions is always a touchy decision. And some players just haven't looked comfortable so far. Linebacker Tamba Hali was a first-round pick at defensive end, and learning to effectively play coverage will be his toughest challenge. Glenn Dorsey, last year's top draft pick, is moving from tackle to end. Haley and coordinator Clancy Pendergast are trying to shake up last year's dreadful defense, but make no mistake: they're gambling, too.

Larry Johnson has to do his part. It seems like a long, long time ago that the Chiefs running back made consecutive Pro Bowls. And, really, Johnson is a different player than he was then. He's no longer the durable, bruising back whose talent overshadows his issues. Now, those issues are the No. 1 talking point regarding Johnson entering this season. He has done well to keep quiet this offseason, trying to make it clear that he wants to be in Kansas City. But he has to stay quiet all season and be productive in an offense that needs some help. If Johnson proves himself again to be a distraction -- and particularly an unproductive distraction, as he was last year -- the Chiefs will forget him as quickly as possible.

Someone has to emerge as a leader on defense. Linebacker Derrick Johnson wants to be the defensive captain, but Zach Thomas took home the honorary title after offseason workouts. It's not so much a matter of who will speak for the defense but who will be the player the Chiefs all strive to become. That could be Thomas, although he is aging and has seen his skills decrease the last few years. It could be Johnson or maybe someone like Tank Tyler. It probably will not be Mike Vrabel, as the Chiefs hoped a few months ago. They need someone to take it personally if the Chiefs defense struggles. And other players have to notice and follow their leader.