Herm Edwards and the rest of the Chiefs coaches are holed up today at team headquarters, awaiting word on what their future holds.

It's almost a foregone conclusion that the staff will undergo a major shake-up, and there are few reasons to believe Edwards -- or anyone on the coaching staff -- will be retained long enough to begin next week, let alone next year.

As new general manager Scott Pioli makes his first and biggest decision as a team's top executive, there are dozens of factors that could go into his decision. It might have made for a better post to have a contrasting view of Edwards' future -- three reasons he should be fired and three reasons he should not be fired. But the reasons he shouldn't return for a fourth year are just too easy:

1. 9-7.
2. 4-12.
3. 2-14.

So here are three reasons why Pioli should retain Edwards, even if it's just to start the season with no job security and a likely firing if the team starts worse than 3-1.

1. The Chiefs actually did improve at the end of last season. Other than Buffalo and maybe Cincinnati, the Chiefs seemed to improve, at least offensively. There was chemistry on offense, and players actually believed they made up a good group.

As well as Tyler Thigpen played, Kansas City needs a franchise quarterback, and that might have been the difference this year in a team that went 2-14 and one that went 7-9 -- which at least looks like improvement after 2007.

The team also was young last year, for better or worse, and those young players should be far better in 2009. There is no question the secondary was good. Not just serviceable but good. Edwards assembled a team with potential and did what he said the Chiefs would do: play the youngsters, evaluate them and see how they stand up against NFL opponents.

2. Edwards was hamstrung his first two years by Carl Peterson. The story goes that Edwards wanted to blow up the team upon arriving in Kansas City in 2006. But Peterson wouldn't allow it, instead hoping to make a playoff push that season and, if it didn't happen, they could begin the rebuilding process. Well, that happened, and the rebuild was delayed.

By the time 2007 rolled around, the team was decrepit and had no chance of finishing with a winning record, let alone a shot at the playoffs. A common sentiment at Arrowhead is that 2007's record, 4-12, actually was a worse season than 2008's 2-14 finish because 80 percent of the '07 roster would be gone at the end of the season. If there was a wasted year, some decision-makers have said, it was '07 and not '08, because progress was made in '08. Peterson and Edwards weren't on the same page during much of that time, and Edwards could not overrule Peterson until, at earliest, last year's draft. By then, Edwards was two years in and, by today's NFL standards, almost out of time.

With Peterson out of the picture and the rebuilding movement entering its second phase, Edwards could go through another free agency period and another draft to build on what the coach calls a foundation.

3. Retaining the coach would promote stability. The Chiefs keep saying they want to be more like Pittsburgh and use the Steelers' model for stability and consistency in their leadership positions. You can't move toward that kind of goal when you change coaches every three or four years. In the past decade, the Chiefs have had three coaches -- four if Edwards is fired.

If Pioli is certain he can get an elite and up-and-coming coach, then Edwards should be let go. If Pioli would have to settle for whomever was left over, Edwards is no worse than some of the wandering names still on the coaching wire.

With a change, there also is the risk of upending some of the progress that was made last year. Forget the Tony Gonzalez-Thigpen-Edwards love triangle. Players such as Brandon Carr, Branden Albert and Maurice Leggett seemed to respond to Edwards' style of coaching; the two cornerbacks were long shots who panned out. A new coach might not be able to connect with players like Edwards did, and a scheme or philosophy change could set the organization back at least a year.