Tony Gonzalez said today he was 95 percent certain he would play again next year for the Chiefs. The one thing that would probably drive him out after this season?

The Chiefs winning the Super Bowl. So I guess Gonzalez believes the Chiefs have a five percent chance of winning it this year. That might not sound high, but it's probably higher than most people.

Gonzalez more likely will be around in 2009. If this season develops as the Chiefs hope, next year will look a lot more promising.

''There are going to be some growing pains,'' he said. ''There’s no doubt about that. But I think by the end of the year we’re going to have a really good football team and we’re going to be that much better next year.''

Another reason for Gonzalez to stick around for 2009: He would have to return a rather hefty portion of the signing bonus from his most recent contract if he retires.

''I just signed my contract last year,'' he said. ''If I did retire, I’d probably have to do like Barry Sanders and give some money back. I don’t know if I want to do that. I’m not saying I wouldn’t.''